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The Colts crushed the Bills 41-15 on the road on Sunday behind a legendary performance from running back Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns on 32 carries and caught three passes for 19 yards and one touchdown. Indianapolis has now won five of their last six games, including three in a row.
The Bucs, on the other hand, ended a two-game losing streak by beating the Giants 30-10 at home on Monday. Tom Brady completed 30 of 46 passes for 307 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the win.
The Buccaneers (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) opened at -3 at Heritage Sports and FiveThirtyEight have them at 1, giving them a 46 percent chance to win. For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Buccaneers at -0.67 using his Rating numbers and at 1.33 using his eigenvector analysis.
This leaves a 4-point gap between the FiveThirtyEight projections for the Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) and the actual NFL odds. BetOnline set the total at 53.5 and Sagarin projects these two teams to combine for 52.88 points.
The key to this game will be Indianapolis’ ability to establish the run with Jonathan Taylor. The star running back is coming off the best game of his career and he’ll likely regress against a Buccaneers defense that leads the NFL, allowing just 78.4 rushing yards per game.
The Colts rank fourth in the league with 147.9 rushing yards per game but they’re just 23rd in the NFL with 216.1 passing yards per game. Can Carson Wentz take over if they can’t run the ball? That’s another aspect that will decide the outcome of this game!
Back at it.#GoBucs
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) November 25, 2021
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| Title: Buccaneers vs. Colts NFL Week 12 Odds, Preview and Pick
| Author: Eduardo Solano
| Date: Nov 25, 2021