Coming off their second-ever AFC South championship, the Jacksonville Jaguars are substantial favorites to repeat with -155 odds to take the division, well above the second-place projected Titans at 310.
While I agree with the Jaguars to take the division, whether or not they will exceed their projected betting win total isn’t as straightforward.
Let’s dive into OVER/UNDER win total betting predictions for the division with the odds provided by Fan Duel.
Click the image for live odds
Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 9.5 Wins (-144)
The Jaguars started just 5-8 last season before winning their final four regular season games. Jacksonville has by far the best head coaching and quarterback combination in the division behind Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence.
Although the non-division schedule is challenging, including matchups between the Chiefs, Bills, and AFC North, the Jags should be able to do enough damage between their own division and the NFC South foes to win at least 10 games.
Tennessee Titans UNDER 7.5 wins ( 106)
The Titans’ first six games before the bye week are brutal. Tennesse’s first two home games are against the Chargers and Bengals, and their matchups against the Saints, Browns, and Colts will have extra difficulty due to being on the road.
Facing the Ravens in London in Week 6 will also be challenging. After the bye, the schedule does get a little lighter but still includes road trips to Pittsburgh and Miami.
After starting with four straight winning seasons as a head coach, Mike Vrabel’s team only won seven games last season, and I see them failing to reach eight wins again in 2023.
| 2022-23 Record | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Record | Lost Divisional Round 20-27 |
 | Kansas City Chiefs | |
| Tennessee Titans | Record | Coach |
 | Mike Vrabel | |
| Indianapolis Colts | Record | Coach |
 | Jeff Saturday | |
| Houston Texans | Record | Coach |
 | Lovie Smith | |
Indianapolis Colts UNDER 6.5 (-104)
The Colts lost 10 of their final 11 games last season and are in the beginning stages of rebuilding. Head Shane Steichen will help this team change the culture, but it won’t happen overnight.
The Colts pass defense will likely be one of the worst in the NFL this season, putting too much pressure on the offense. With Jonathan Taylor on the trade block, I don’t see rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson having enough help to lead this group to more than six wins.
Houston Texans UNDER 6.5 wins (-142)
Expecting first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans to get this team to seven wins is alot to ask. Houston failed to win more than four games in each of the last three seasons, and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud will experience some growing pains.
I have the Texans falling below seven wins.
.@getnickwright breaks down his AFC South predictions 👀
1. Jaguars
2. Titans
3. Colts
4. Texans pic.twitter.com/cqMJec5SMJ— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) August 30, 2023
| Title: 2023 AFC South Over/Win Total Predictions
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: Sep 6, 2023
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