Fading the public is a betting strategy against a side that most casual bettors support. This approach is often considered amongst more seasoned NFL bettors based on the assumption and studies that the house usually wins and that the casual bettors often make incorrect and emotional predictions.
Based on the information I have collected, as of Wednesday, October 11, here are the most popular NFL sides for Week 6:
Click the image for live odds
Chiefs -10.5 over Broncos @ 8:15 pm ET Thursday
The Chiefs are getting anywhere from 70% to 90% of the money and tickets at several sportsbooks and websites. It makes sense, as the Chiefs have won 15 straight head-to-head games in this rivalry.
The Broncos are also just 0-4-1 ATS. However, Denver has kept four of the last five games within six points.
49ers -7 against the Browns @1pm ET Sunday
The Browns opened up as just a three-point dog, but money is heavily pouring in on San Francisco. Although the Browns have the rest advantage following a bye and the luxury of playing at home, the injury status of DeShaun Watson makes it challenging to trust the Browns.
The 49ers have also won 15 straight regular season games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16.
Is there anything more beautiful than a full day of football? 🥲
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/gpDvGle0kC pic.twitter.com/yyBUFCgC7K
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
Bills -14 over Giants @ 8:20 pm ET Sunday
The Bills are coming off a long road trip from London last week, but only a small percentage of bettors are giving New York a chance. In some places, up to 93% of the tickets favor the Bills, causing the spread to increase from 12.5 to 14.
The Giants have been a mess this season but have also faced a grueling schedule with losses to the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, and Dolphins on their resume. Unfortunately, all four Giants’ losses have been by at least 15 points or more.
Dolphins -13.5 over Panthers @ 1 pm ET on Sunday
The Dolphins are first in the NFL in yards per game, yards per pass, and rush attempt. The Dolphins are also 4-1 ATS this season but will be without their leading rusher, De’Von Achane who is averaging 12.1 yards per carry and is second in the NFL with 460 rushing yards on the season.
The Panthers are second to last in yards per pass attempt, 20th in yards per rush attempt, and 0-4-1 ATS.
Rams -7 over Cardinals @ 4:25 pm ET-Sunday
The Rams opened up as just a 4.5-point favorite but have taken a lot of money and are now a full touchdown favorite with the extra point. A lot of the movement is because of injuries on the Arizona side, which includes safety Jalen Thompson and wide receiver Marquise Brown.
The Rams are also 8-2 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS against the Cardinals over the last 10 matchups. However, Arizona won 27-17 as a 3.5-point dog when these teams last met on November 13, 2022.
SF: 10
CLE: 13NO: 13
HOU: 20MIN: 19
CHI: 13SEA: 13
CIN: 17WAS: 24
ATL: 16FIVE GAMES WITHIN ONE SCORE.
— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023
Which public sides do you agree and disagree with this week?
| Title: NFL Week 6 Public Betting Preview (To Fade or Follow?)
| Author: David Marotta
| Date: Oct 15th, 2023
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