The Clemson Tigers are going to the College Football Playoffs for the fifth straight year – if they can knock off the Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC Championship Game this weekend.
With oddsmakers setting the Tigers as 28-point favorites versus the Cavaliers inside Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, there’s little doubt Clemson can get the job done. But that’s not the question college football bettors are asking. Can Clemson climb this mountain of chalk and cover the 28 points?
If you’re betting on the sports betting trends for the ACC Championship, here are some angles and edges to work into your handicapping.
Since being ranked No. 5 – and outside of the postseason cutoff – back in Week 11, Clemson has been on a mission to prove that the selection committee got it wrong. In the three games since that initial ranking, the Tigers have won all three outings by a combined score of 145-16 – covering spreads of -34, -35, and -27.5 along the way.
The most recent CFP rankings have Clemson at No. 3 which means the Tigers still have work to do in the ACC Championship. However, due to the strength of the ACC and with Ohio State and LSU playing in much more competitive conferences, the third spot may be as good as it gets for Clemson. That won’t stop the Tigers from running up the score for style points in Charlotte this Saturday.
Catch the Cavs
Virginia punched its ticket to the ACC title game with an upset win over rival Virginia Tech this past weekend. The Cavaliers were 1.5-point home underdogs versus the Hokies, and took a 39-30 victory that not only slide UVA into the top of the ACC Coastal standings but snapped a 15-game losing streak to Virginia Tech.
The Cavaliers bring that momentum and a four-game winning streak into Saturday’s matchups with Clemson. Virginia is 9-3 SU with those three losses coming to Notre Dame, Miami, and Louisville. The Cavs haven’t faced the Tigers since 2013 and haven’t beaten Clemson since 2004, going 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS in the three most recent matchups.
There are some troubling home/away splits for the Cavaliers this season. Virginia sees its offense dip from 39 points at home to only 23.6 on the road. Defensively, the Cavs don’t see that much of a valley between home and visitor, but with this game on a neutral site UVA backers have to be worried about that offensive power outage.
The Over/Under betting total for the ACC Championship Game is set at 54.5 points. With Clemson giving 28 points, the bulk of the scoring load is leaning on the Tigers in the title game.
Clemson’s offense is up to the job and given their recent outpouring on offense, they could top this total all on their own – especially if the Tigers are trying to impress the selection committee and slide into a Top-2 spot in the CFP rankings. On the season, Clemson is 5-7 Over/Under but that late-season surge could have college football bettors looking beyond that season-long record.
Virginia enters the ACC title game with an 8-4 Over/Under record, however, it was just 2-3 O/U away from home – where it scores more than 15 points less per game.